Adobe expects US online shoppers to spend $47.5 billion between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday, 26 to 30 November, up 7.4% on last year. Cyber Monday alone is forecast at $15.1 billion, the first single day above $15 billion.
Those numbers hide the fact that the four days do not bring the same shopper. If you offer live help, decide in advance who covers each day and what they need to hand. Here is one way to split it.
Thursday 26 November: Thanksgiving
Adobe forecasts $6.9 billion on Thanksgiving, up 8.5%. It also forecasts the biggest jump in traffic arriving from AI assistants: up 159% on the day.
Adobe does not say how big that traffic is today, so treat the percentage as a direction, not a volume. The direction is clear enough. The shopper on Thursday evening is often relaxed, browsing from a sofa and arriving with a shortlist from an assistant. Her question is the one the shortlist could not settle: sizes, what is in the box, whether it arrives before 24 December.
Put your best product knowledge on this shift, not your fastest talker.
Friday 27 November: Black Friday
Black Friday is forecast at $12.9 billion, up 9.2%, the fastest-growing of the three big days. Adobe says discounts can reach 30% across Cyber Week, so many of your shoppers will have compared your price before they arrive.
On this day, price is not the question you can win. The question is whether this is the right item at that price. A person who can say "that one is the same model as last year's, and this one is not" earns the order. Give this shift the authority to answer without checking with someone else.
Saturday and Sunday: the quiet gap
The Adobe figures we could read give no day-level numbers for the weekend. Expect a lower pace, and use it for repair work. Read the conversations from Thursday and Friday and list the questions that came up twice. Add each answer to the product page. A question you answered twice by hand is a line missing from the page.
If you also sell to trade buyers, a quieter weekend is a good time to check that your wholesale pages show stock and terms.
Monday 30 November: Cyber Monday
Cyber Monday is the biggest single day at $15.1 billion, up 6.2%. AI-referred traffic grows 88% on the day, less than on Thursday, so a larger share of visitors arrive by other routes.
Plan for shorter questions and less patience. Here the best use of a person is the narrow one: a shopper with a full cart who needs one answer to finish. Make the call button easy to find from the cart page and the checkout.
What to write down
For each day, record three things: how many conversations started, what the most common question was, and whether it came from a product page or the cart. By Tuesday you will know which of the four days needed a person and which only needed a better page.
Our post on when to offer live help covers how to pick the hours. Run this plan once, and next year's rota writes itself.
Source
Adobe Digital Insights 2026 holiday forecast, published 28 September 2026 and read through trade coverage (Relevant Audience). Adobe's release and two other trade pages blocked automated reading, so the figures were not checked against the original. Figures used: Cyber Week (26 to 30 November) at $47.5 billion, up 7.4%; Thanksgiving $6.9 billion (up 8.5%), Black Friday $12.9 billion (up 9.2%), Cyber Monday $15.1 billion (up 6.2%); AI-referred traffic growth of 159%, 95% and 88% on those days; discounts of up to 30% in Cyber Week. The forecasts cover US online retail, not wholesale. Adobe does not disclose AI's share of traffic or sales. The day-by-day staffing advice is an editorial application.
