Bain & Company expects US holiday retail sales to pass $1 trillion for the first time, up 4.5% on last year. Its finding that matters here: more than half of that growth comes from higher prices, not from shoppers buying more units.
Apply that to your own store. Suppose your average order value (AOV) goes from $84 in November last year to $90 this November. That looks like a 7% gain. It may be nothing you did. Three subtractions will tell you.
Step 1: take the price out
Divide this year's AOV by the average price change on the items you sold. If your list prices rose 4%, then $90 is $86.50 in last year's prices. The "real" gain is about 3%, not 7%.
Do this per product, not across the catalogue. A single price rise on your best seller can account for most of the move.
Step 2: check the mix
Next, look at what was in the basket. If shoppers bought more of your dearest item and the same number of everything else, the average rises with no change in behaviour. That is a mix effect. It is useful to know about, because it tells you which product is pulling the number and whether you can stock enough of it.
A quick test: calculate AOV again with the top-priced product removed from both years. If the gain disappears, one product was carrying it.
Step 3: count units per order
This is the only step that measures selling. Divide units by orders for each year. If it rose from 2.4 to 2.6, shoppers are adding items, and something in your store or your conversations is helping them. If it stayed at 2.4, none of the AOV gain came from the basket.
Units per order is also the number you can change. You cannot control Bain's price index, but you can answer a question about which size to buy, or point to the item that goes with the one in the cart.
What to do with the answer
Write the three numbers on one line: price effect, mix effect, units effect. Most stores will find the first is the largest this season, and that is fine as long as it is known.
Then pick the units number and work on it. Add a plain answer to the product pages that get the most questions, and be available at the hour when baskets stall. Our post on what average order value measures covers the basic calculation. A rise you can explain is one you can repeat next year, when prices may not rise to carry you.
Source
Bain & Company's 2026 holiday forecast, as reported by Yahoo Finance on 30 September 2026 (US holiday retail sales above $1 trillion for the first time, 4.5% nominal growth, more than half of the growth coming from higher prices rather than more units). Deloitte's forecast for the same season, reported in the same article, puts holiday e-commerce at $316.1 to $318.9 billion, up 7.5% to 8.4%. Bain's own report was not read in full. The forecasts cover US retail as a whole, not wholesale or B2B. The store figures in the body are invented for illustration and are not BeamCart results.
