Black Friday discounts will reach 30%. Here is what they won't fix.

Adobe published its holiday forecast this morning. Drawing on more than a trillion visits to US retail sites and 100 million products, it expects US online sales of $275.1 billion between 1 November and 31 December 2026, up 6.7% on last year.

Much of that will be decided in a few days. Adobe forecasts $47.5 billion for Cyber Week, the five days from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday, with shoppers spending over $15 billion on Cyber Monday alone.

What the forecast says about discounts

Adobe expects the discounts to be deep: up to 30% off the listed price in electronics, 29% in toys and 23% in apparel. It also expects shoppers to use those deals to stock up on essentials.

That second point matters more than it looks. Toothpaste, socks and dog food are bought on price. The shopper already knows the product, so the only open question is where it is cheapest.

Many of the products a smaller store sells are not like that. A winter coat, a blender or a gift for someone else raises questions a price cut does not touch.

A lower price answers one question

A discount tells the shopper the product costs less. It does not tell them whether the coat is warm enough for their commute, whether the blender handles ice, or whether the size will fit a nephew they have not seen since summer.

When those questions go unanswered, the discount has bought an order, not a decision. Some of those orders come back in January, and the refund takes the discount with it.

An advisor who has handled the product can settle the question in a minute, often on camera. That is something no competitor's lower price can take away.

Check your margins with your own figures

Before choosing a discount, take your ten best sellers and work out what each sale leaves you at full price and at the discount you are considering. Include what the price tag does not show: payment fees, shipping, and the share of orders you expect back.

Then work out how many more units you would need to sell at the lower price to keep the same margin. For some products the answer is reasonable. For others it is more than your traffic can deliver, and the discount only shrinks the season.

Decide in October which products get the discount

Neither a pricing plan nor a prepared team can be set up on Black Friday morning. Pages take time to rewrite, and advisors need time with the products they will be asked about.

Sort your range into two groups. Match the market on the products shoppers compare on price alone. Hold the price where a shopper needs advice to choose, and put your effort into answering them.

Ask your team which products drew the most questions last November, and brief them on those first. Live shopping gives them a camera for the questions a product page cannot settle, and What is AOV, and how does it help your store grow? covers how to read the order values that come out of it.